OVERVIEW: JUNE 9 AT A GLANCE
On Tuesday, June 9, 2026, voters in Maine, North Dakota, Nevada, and South Carolina head to the polls in primary elections that carry national consequences. From a toss-up U.S. Senate race in Maine to a wide-open governor’s race in South Carolina, these contests will determine who advances to the November 3 general election—and in several cases, who effectively wins the seat.
This report breaks down the marquee races, the latest polling, and the practical information voters need to show up and cast a ballot.
Four States. One Primary Date. Races that will shape the 2026 midterm landscape.
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MAINE
U.S. Senate: Collins (R-inc.) vs. the Platner Phenomenon
This is the marquee race. Senator Susan Collins, first elected in 1996, is seeking a sixth term. She is the only Republican senator representing a state that Donald Trump did not win in any of his three presidential campaigns. Collins is uncontested in the Republican primary.
On the Democratic side, Graham Platner—a Sullivan oyster farmer who entered the race as a populist outsider—has emerged as the presumptive nominee after Governor Janet Mills dropped out of the primary on April 30. Platner now leads Collins in every publicly released general election poll.
Collins vs. Platner: General Election Matchup Platner leads in every released poll. Race tightening in final week.
Collins leads in CD-2 (45–41%) but trails in CD-1 (36–56%). Watch ranked-choice dynamics in November. |
VoteRight IQ: In the latest polling Collins leads Platner in CD-2 (45–41%) but trails badly in CD-1 (36–56%). The race has tightened in the final week—watch for ranked-choice dynamics in November.
Governor: Open Seat, Open Field
Governor Janet Mills (D) is term-limited. The Republican primary features several candidates including Robert Charles, a Leeds attorney who served under President George W. Bush, and Jonathan Bush. On the Democratic side, Troy Jackson (former Senate President), Nirav Shah (former CDC official), and several others are competing in a wide-open field. Maine has not elected consecutive governors from the same party since 1952—a historical pattern that could favor Republicans.
VoteRight IQ: UNH polling shows no clear frontrunner in the Dem primary. Robert Charles leads the GOP field. This is a genuine pickup opportunity for Republicans.
CD-2: LePage Returns
Former Republican Governor Paul LePage holds a narrow lead over incumbent Democrat Jared Golden in polling for Maine’s 2nd Congressional District. This rural, working-class district voted for Trump and is a top Republican target.
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NORTH DAKOTA
The Landscape: Deep Red, High Stakes Down-Ballot
North Dakota is safely Republican at every level of statewide office. There is no U.S. Senate race and Governor Kelly Armstrong (R), elected in 2024, is not on the ballot. The primary action centers on intra-party contests, a critical ballot measure, and legislative races that reveal the divide between traditional and populist wings of the state GOP.
Trump carried North Dakota with 66.96% of the vote in 2024. Every statewide officeholder is a Republican. The real contests here are decided in the GOP primary.
U.S. House: At-Large District
Incumbent Republican Julie Fedorchak is running for reelection. She faces a primary challenge from Alex Balazs on the Republican side. On the Democratic side, Trygve Hammer and Vern Thompson are competing. Given the state’s deep-red composition, the Republican nominee is heavily favored in November.
Public Service Commission: Contested Republican Primaries
Both PSC seats on the ballot feature contested Republican primaries. The six-year term seat features incumbent Sheri Haugen-Hoffart against challenger(s), while the two-year unexpired term pits appointed incumbent Jill Kringstad against Chris Olson, who gathered over 900 petition signatures after failing to secure the NDGOP endorsement at convention. Energy policy—particularly carbon pipelines and energy affordability—has emerged as the defining issue.
VoteRight IQ: The PSC races are a proxy fight between the establishment and grassroots wings of the North Dakota GOP. Watch these results for signals about intra-party dynamics heading into 2028.
Ballot Measure No. 1: Single Subject Rule
Voters will decide whether to amend the North Dakota Constitution to require that all proposed constitutional amendments be limited to a single subject. The measure was placed on the ballot by the Legislature and is designed to prevent future ballot initiatives from bundling unrelated topics. A “Yes” vote approves the amendment; a “No” vote preserves the status quo.
VoteRight IQ: The PSC races are a proxy fight between the establishment and grassroots wings of the North Dakota GOP. Watch these results for signals about intra-party dynamics heading into 2028.
Legislative Races: Intra-GOP Battle Lines
About a dozen legislative districts feature contested Republican primaries, including District 7 (Bismarck) and District 13 (West Fargo) where full competing slates of NDGOP candidates are running for House and Senate seats. The divide between traditional conservatives and populist-aligned challengers is the central storyline. The Democratic-NPL Party fielded 60 legislative candidates—an increase over 2024.
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NEVADA
Governor: Lombardo (R-inc.) Seeks Second Term
Republican Governor Joe Lombardo is running for reelection against six longshot GOP primary challengers. No major Republican candidate has emerged to threaten the incumbent, and Lombardo is expected to cruise through the primary. On the Democratic side, Attorney General Aaron Ford is the establishment frontrunner, though he faces a primary challenge from Washoe County Commissioner Alexis Hill.
General election polling shows a genuine toss-up: the Cook Political Report rates this race “Toss Up.” An Emerson College poll (December 2025) found Lombardo and Ford tied at 41% each, while a Noble Predictive Insights survey (October 2025) gave Lombardo a narrow 40–37% edge.
VoteRight IQ: Lombardo holds a 66% approval among Republicans and leads among independents. Nevada has elected a Republican governor in every cycle since 1998 except 2018. The GOP has structural advantages here, but Ford is a credible opponent.
CD-2: The Biggest Open Seat Battle in the West
Congressman Mark Amodei’s surprise retirement in February opened up Nevada’s only safe Republican House seat—one that has never elected a Democrat since its creation after the 1980 census. Thirteen Republicans and eleven Democrats filed to run. Republicans outnumber Democrats roughly 3-to-2 in the district.
The two Republican frontrunners are retired Air Force Lt. Col. David Flippo, who carries Donald Trump’s endorsement and is campaigning on immigration, and former State Senator James Settelmeyer, who has the endorsements of both Amodei and Governor Lombardo and is positioning himself as a traditional conservative in the Amodei mold.
Key Contenders: Open Seat 13 Rs on the ballot. Never elected a Democrat. R+7.
Trump endorsement vs. Lombardo/Amodei establishment — factional test. Winner heavily favored in Nov. |
VoteRight IQ: This primary is the race to watch in Nevada. The Trump endorsement vs. Lombardo/Amodei establishment backing creates a clear factional test. The winner is the heavy favorite in November in this R+7 district.
Down-Ballot: Secretary of State and Attorney General
The Republican Secretary of State primary features Jim Marchant, Sharron Angle, and others. On the GOP Attorney General side, Danny Tarkanian and Adriana Guzmán Fralick are competing. Both races carry implications for election administration and law enforcement policy in a critical swing state.
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SOUTH CAROLINA
Governor: Wide-Open GOP Primary — Potential Runoff
This is the headliner. Governor Henry McMaster (R) is term-limited, creating the most competitive Republican gubernatorial primary South Carolina has seen in years. Five candidates are polling in double digits with no clear frontrunner—meaning a June 23 runoff between the top two is highly likely, since a candidate must exceed 50% to avoid one.
Democrats have not won a gubernatorial election in South Carolina since 1998. The Republican nominee will be the strong favorite in November.
Wide-Open Field: No Frontrunner Five in double digits. June 23 runoff virtually guaranteed.
Evette and Wilson trading the lead. Dems haven’t won SC governor since 1998 — the R nominee is the next governor. |
VoteRight IQ: With five candidates clustered between 14–20%, a runoff on June 23 is virtually guaranteed. The question is who makes the top two. Evette and Wilson have traded the lead across three polls. Norman and Mace could surge with late momentum. This race rewards name ID and ground game.
U.S. Senate: Graham Seeks Fifth Term
Senator Lindsey Graham (R), first elected in 2002, is running for a fifth term. South Carolina is a solidly Republican state, and Graham is expected to advance comfortably. The primary will feature the Democratic side selecting a nominee for what will be an uphill general election challenge.
Attorney General: Open Seat
Four-term incumbent Alan Wilson declined to seek reelection (he’s running for governor), creating an open Attorney General race. State Senator Josh Goldfinch and others are seeking the Republican nomination. This is a consequential down-ballot race that will determine who leads South Carolina’s legal strategy on federal challenges.
| South Carolina | How to Vote |
| Primary Date | Tuesday, June 9, 2026 |
| Runoff Date | June 23, 2026 (if no candidate exceeds 50%) |
| Polls Open | 7:00 AM |
| Polls Close | 7:00 PM ET |
| Primary Type | Open — choose your party at the polls, no registration |
| Registration Deadline | May 10, 2026 (already passed) |
| Early Voting | May 26–June 5, 8:30 AM–5:00 PM (any location in your county) |
| Election Day | Must vote at your designated precinct |
| Voter ID | Yes — photo ID required |
| Find Your Polling Place | scvotes.gov |
NATIONAL CONTEXT: WHY JUNE 9 MATTERS
These four primaries do not exist in a vacuum. The outcomes of June 9 will directly impact the balance of power in Washington and in state capitals across the country.
U.S. Senate: republicans currently hold the majority. The Maine Senate race is rated among the most competitive in the country. If Collins loses, the path to a Democratic Senate majority runs directly through this seat.
U.S. House: Republicans hold a 218–214 majority with three vacancies. Nevada’s CD-2 open seat and Maine’s CD-2 rematch are both races that could determine which party controls the chamber in the 120th Congress.
Governor’s Mansions: Of the 36 gubernatorial races in 2026, Nevada (toss-up) and Maine (open seat) offer the clearest opportunities for competitive general elections. South Carolina’s governor will almost certainly be a Republican—the question is which one.
Down-Ballot Infrastructure: Secretary of State and Attorney General races in Nevada and South Carolina will determine who administers elections and enforces state law in two politically significant states heading into 2028.
METHODOLOGY & SOURCES
Polling data sourced from Trafalgar Group, Emerson College Polling, UNH Survey Center (Pine Tree State Poll), Pan Atlantic Research, UMass Lowell/YouGov, Public Policy Polling, Noble Predictive Insights, Starboard Communications, and the South Carolina Policy Council. Voting logistics sourced from state Secretaries of State offices, Ballotpedia, and state election commission websites.
All data verified as of June 6, 2026.
This report was prepared by LeadRight America for informational purposes. Polling data carries margins of error as noted. LeadRight America does not endorse candidates. For questions or corrections, contact us at leadright.us.